Airbnb IPO: Market Cap Prediction

Will Airbnb exceed expectations?

Dear friends,

This is a quick follow up on our two previous posts entitled ‘A Note On Airbnb's IPO Filling’ and ‘Could Airbnb Become Even Bigger Post COVID-19?’, both of which were published early this year. Now that Airbnb’s IPO prospectus is available, we thought we’d share one of the predictions that we generated earlier this week!

We considered a lot factors in our modelling that could impact investor sentiment in the US equities, including; the recent COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough, recent tech IPOs, an upcoming Biden administration’s potential tax policies and the Georgia senate races too.

One of the prediction runs yielded the following three results for Airbnb’s market cap for the first 14 days as public company:

  • Bearish Sentiment: 29Bn - 43Bn (USD)

  • Bullish Sentiment: 68Bn - 81Bn (USD)

  • Super Bullish Sentiment: 93Bn - 121Bn (USD)

Of course, we’ll keep updating our predictions internally over the coming days & weeks as more data comes into light.

Why Are We Sharing?

Well, firstly, we are only sharing one of the predictions that we generated. The newer predictions will only be available to our PM’s and select partners. Furthermore, each of the above predictions have probability measures associated with them that we’re not disclosing.

Secondly, sharing means we are risking embarrassing ourselves if we get the predictions wrong and as such this puts positive pressure on us to improve our modelling in order to avoid future embarrassments ;)

We’ll keep monitoring SEC for more details on Airbnb and update you when possible. That’s it for now thanks for reading!


Disclaimer: Any opinions, newsletters, research, analyses, prices, projections or other information offered by ZAIKU CAPITAL is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. ZAIKU CAPITAL will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.  

Research Credits: This post was powered by our amazing quant market intelligence platform team Kähler Insights.